The MACD crossover — going long when the MACD line crosses above its signal line — is the classic momentum entry. It’s simple, it’s everywhere, and most people never check whether it actually works. We did, on 3.6 years of real daily bars.
The rules
- Entry: long when the MACD line (12/26) crosses above its 9-period signal line.
- Exit: when it crosses back below.
The results
| Metric | MACD Flip 12/26/9 |
|---|---|
| Profit factor | 2.43 |
| Total / name (compounded) | +150.8% |
| Avg return / trade | +2.56% |
| Win rate | 45.1% |
| Trades | 379 |
| Max drawdown | −36.5% |
Making it better
Adding a 200-day trend filter (only take crosses above the 200-day) cut the drawdown and smoothed the ride — at the cost of some upside. In practice, MACD is best as a confirmation layer: when a mean-reversion or Stage-2 name also just flipped MACD bullish, that agreement is the real signal. For current candidates, check the Desk’s scanner and the timestamp on its results.
Key takeaways
- MACD crossover compounds hard (+150% / name) but through a low 45% win rate.
- The −37% drawdown is the price of admission — winners run, losers are frequent.
- Best used as confirmation on top of RSI-2 or Stage-2 names, not standalone.
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FAQ
Is the MACD crossover strategy profitable?
In our backtest it returned a 2.43 profit factor and +150% per name — profitable, but with a 45% win rate and a 37% max drawdown.
What are the best MACD settings?
The classic 12/26/9 is what we tested. Adding a 200-day trend filter reduced drawdown at the cost of some return.
Does MACD work by itself?
It can, but it’s stronger as confirmation — when a name in an uptrend or an oversold dip also flips MACD bullish, the signals agree.