What this article measures, and what it doesn't
We did not run a backtest of Pelosi's trades. A fair one would need exact trade dates, exact sizes and the date each filing became public. Lawmakers report their trades in value ranges, not exact amounts (>CNN via Yahoo Finance), so any "Pelosi portfolio return" is an estimate.
Instead, we use a live, investable proxy with a public record: NANC, the Subversive Congressional Democrats Trading ETF. It "seeks to broadly invest in stocks purchased or sold by Democratic members of the US Congress and their families," per >StockAnalysis. We compare it with SPY, the S&P 500 ETF.
Keep one limit in mind throughout. NANC tracks many Democratic lawmakers. Pelosi is the best-known name in it, but its returns are not hers.
NANC vs SPY: the numbers
All figures are as of September 24, 2026.
| Measure | NANC | SPY | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year to date | 14.82% | 13.47% | >PortfoliosLab |
| 1-year total return | 17.61% | 16.92% | >StockAnalysis NANC, >StockAnalysis SPY |
| 3 years, annualized | 25.17% | 22.75% | >PortfoliosLab |
| Volatility (1-month) | 4.08% | 3.06% | >PortfoliosLab |
| Average loss on worst 5% of days | 2.02% | 1.77% | >PortfoliosLab |
| Expense ratio | 0.72% | 0.09% | >StockAnalysis NANC, >StockAnalysis SPY |
| Correlation with each other | 0.96 | >PortfoliosLab |
The math, shown
- Three-year compounding. 25.17% a year for three years is 1.2517³ ≈ 1.961, a gain of about 96%. 22.75% a year is 1.2275³ ≈ 1.850, a gain of about 85%. That is roughly an 11-point gap over three years.
- One-year gap. 17.61% minus 16.92% is 0.69 percentage points. On $10,000, that is about $11,761 versus $11,692.
- Fee drag. NANC costs 0.72% a year and SPY costs 0.09%. That is 0.63 points of extra cost, or about $63 more per year on $10,000. The returns above are already net of those fees.
How to read this
NANC did beat SPY over three years and over the past year. The one-year edge is small. NANC also moved around more: higher volatility and bigger losses on its worst days.
The 0.96 correlation matters most. It says NANC and SPY "have historically moved very closely together" (>PortfoliosLab). A lot of NANC's result looks like the stock market itself, tilted toward large tech.
That tilt shows in the holdings. NANC's top five as of September 24, 2026, were Nvidia (8.67%), Microsoft (6.45%), Alphabet (5.92%), Amazon (4.80%) and Apple (4.52%), per >StockAnalysis. The top 10 make up 46.81% of the fund.
We also left one figure out on purpose. StockAnalysis lists NANC's inception as December 2019, while CNN reports the fund launched in 2023. Because the start date is disputed, we don't quote a since-inception return.
What about the Republican version?
The GOP ETF follows Republican lawmakers' disclosed trades. It returned 25.73% over the past year, per >StockAnalysis, well ahead of both NANC and SPY over that window. One year is a short sample. It is a reminder that "follow Congress" results depend on which members, and which year, you pick.
What Pelosi herself traded recently
Pelosi's own filings are few and large. In 2025 she disclosed 19 trades totaling about $51.7 million, per >Money. Money reported that she closed 2025 by selling Disney and PayPal and adding call options on Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia. On Jan. 16, 2026, she bought Vistra, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia and AllianceBernstein.
Most of the Pelosi-linked trades are made by her husband, Paul Pelosi, according to >CNN via Yahoo Finance.
NANC's manager, Dan Weiskopf, explained why her trades have been easy to follow despite the delay. She uses "long-dated options" that "are still active even after the delayed disclosures," he told CNN. Lawmakers have up to 45 days to disclose trades over $1,000 (>Money). A long-dated position leaves time to act. A short-term trade does not.
How to use it on the Loomi.Ai Desk
The Desk's Congress trade tracker covers "every disclosed buy and sell by sitting members of Congress," with Nancy Pelosi included, "pulled straight from the official House and Senate filings and put on your desk the day it drops" (>Loomi.Ai Desk). The Desk FAQ lists "the Congress trade tracker" as part of the $8 membership.
That puts Pelosi's own filings on the Desk, separate from NANC's basket of Democratic lawmakers. The lesson from NANC still applies: a 0.96 correlation with SPY means much of the ride came from owning big tech in a rising market.
- Look at Pelosi's filings directly. Instead of a fund that mixes many members, read her disclosed buys and sells one by one: what she bought, whether it was stock or options, and when.
- Check the gap. A filing reaches the Desk the day it drops, but the trade can be up to 45 days older. Long-dated options, the style Weiskopf credited, hold up better over that gap.
- Compare against the market. Before copying a disclosure, ask whether the stock is just a large index name. If it is, owning the index may give you most of the same exposure at a 0.09% expense ratio.
- Test before you act. The Desk includes a Backtest Lab. Loomi labels all such results as hypothetical backtests.
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FAQ
Did Nancy Pelosi beat the S&P 500? Her exact personal return can't be computed from public filings, which use value ranges. The NANC ETF, which follows Democratic lawmakers' trades, returned 25.17% a year over three years versus 22.75% for SPY as of September 24, 2026 (>PortfoliosLab).
Is NANC just Pelosi's trades? No. It invests in stocks bought or sold by Democratic members of Congress and their families (>StockAnalysis).
What does NANC cost? Its expense ratio is 0.72%, versus 0.09% for SPY.
Will NANC keep working after Pelosi retires? Pelosi leaves Congress in 2027. NANC's manager said "there are plenty of other members of Congress who will continue the trend" (>CNN via Yahoo Finance).
Loomi.Ai provides educational market research, not financial advice. Past ETF returns do not guarantee future results, and no backtest of Pelosi's trades is presented here.
Sources
- >NANC vs. SPY comparison, PortfoliosLab (data as of Sept. 24, 2026)
- >Subversive Congressional Democrats Trading ETF (NANC), StockAnalysis
- >SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), StockAnalysis
- >Subversive Congressional Republicans Trading ETF (GOP), StockAnalysis
- >Congress Stock Tracker: Here's What the Most Active Traders Bought to Start 2026, Money (Feb. 13, 2026)
- >With Nancy Pelosi retiring, stock traders who copy her investments need to find a new hero, CNN via Yahoo Finance (Nov. 6, 2025)
- >Loomi.Ai Desk, Loomi.Ai (fetched Sept. 24, 2026)