Equity traders like to think of bonds as background. In September 2026, bonds were the main driver of the tape. On September 24, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit a high of 5.501%, a level not seen since June 2004, according to CNBC. By Friday, September 25, the 10-year yield had reached 5.23%, its highest level since 2007.
What happened
The move built through the month:
- Sept. 15: the 10-year first broke above its 2007-era range, hitting 5.041%, the highest since July 2007, as traders bet on a Fed hike. CNBC reported that CME FedWatch priced a 92% chance of a hike at the time.
- Sept. 16: the Fed hiked to 3.75%-4.00%, and long-dated yields rose again during Chair Warsh's press conference.
- Sept. 24: Reuters (via GV Wire) reported that a fresh jump in oil pushed the 30-year up as much as four basis points to 5.44%. The selling continued even after the Treasury said it would buy back up to $6 billion of 20- and 30-year bonds that day. CNBC put the intraday high at 5.501%.
- Sept. 25 (Friday): the 10-year surged to 5.23%, per CNBC's September 26 explainer.
Why yields are rising: the competing explanations
There is no agreement on the cause, and that is where the argument is.
- Inflation and oil. Reuters framed it as investors demanding more compensation because of strong growth, high debt, and rising energy costs that have fed inflation fears. The oil shock tied to the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz fits this story.
- Supply of debt. In CNBC's September 26 explainer, Macquarie's Thierry Wizman argued that heavy government and corporate bond issuance has become a bigger driver this year than sticky inflation. Fortune tied the move to the fiscal outlook in a piece on how much worse U.S. debt could get, citing CBO projections.
- AI capex. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh himself linked rising long-term rates to debt financing of the AI spending boom, calling it "competition for capital," according to Facet's summary of his September 16 press conference.
Why it matters for NQ and ES
The Nasdaq 100 is dominated by long-duration growth companies whose valuations depend on discounting cash flows far into the future. When the discount rate rises, those valuations fall. The Motley Fool put the equity problem simply in a September 28 headline: "The 10-Year Treasury Pays 5.2%." A risk-free 5%+ is real competition for stocks.
The link showed up clearly around the Fed meeting. When the 10-year snapped an eight-day rising streak on September 17, Bloomberg reported the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.7% and chipmakers gained 3.1%. For intraday traders, that means the 10-year futures (ZN) and the long bond (ZB) are close to a leading indicator for NQ on macro-driven days.
Our take: The popular story is "the Fed is hiking, so yields are up." We think that is too simple. The long end is rising faster than anything the Fed signalled, and it is happening in Japan, the UK and Europe at the same time. That looks like a global repricing of term premium, meaning the extra pay investors want for tying up money for decades, driven by debt supply, energy and an AI capex boom that needs financing. If that is right, a dovish Fed would not necessarily bring long yields down. That should worry anyone who is long NQ and waiting for the Fed to rescue them.
What traders can watch (general, not advice)
- Put ZN/ZB or the 10-year yield on your NQ chart. Several big NQ days in September moved almost tick-for-tick with yields.
- Know the Treasury auction calendar. If supply is part of the story, long-bond auctions become volatility events for equity futures too.
- Watch crude as well. On September 24 an oil jump started the long-end selloff. Oil to yields to tech is the chain to follow.
- Global overnight moves matter. A JGB or gilt selloff during Asia or London hours can set up the U.S. open before any U.S. data is out.
Key takeaways
- The 30-year Treasury hit 5.501% intraday on Sept. 24, 2026, the highest since June 2004 (CNBC).
- The 10-year reached 5.23% on Friday, Sept. 25, the highest since 2007.
- The selloff was global: Japanese, UK and European yields hit multi-year or multi-decade highs.
- Competing explanations: oil-driven inflation, debt supply, and AI-capex borrowing ("competition for capital").
- Our opinion: this looks like a term-premium repricing that Fed policy alone may not reverse.
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FAQ
How high did Treasury yields go in September 2026?
CNBC reported the 30-year hit an intraday high of 5.501% on Sept. 24, 2026, the highest since June 2004, and CNBC reported on Sept. 26 that the 10-year had reached 5.23% on Friday (Sept. 25), the highest since 2007.
Why do rising bond yields hurt Nasdaq futures?
Nasdaq 100 companies are heavily weighted toward growth firms whose value depends on future cash flows. Higher yields raise the discount rate applied to those cash flows and make risk-free bonds a stronger competitor to stocks.
Did the Treasury try to stop the selloff?
Reuters reported the selling continued even after the Treasury announced it would buy back up to $6 billion of 20- and 30-year bonds on Sept. 24 through its secondary-market buyback program.
Loomi.Ai provides educational market research, not financial advice. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss, and backtested results are historical and do not guarantee future returns.
Sources
- 30-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2004 as bond market rout continues, CNBC
- Global Bond Rout Rolls on, Pushing US 30-Year Yield to Highest Since 2004, Reuters via GV Wire
- Global Bond Rout Brings Highest US 30-Year Yield Since 2004, Advisor Perspectives (Bloomberg)
- 10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2007 as traders bet a Fed rate hike is coming, CNBC
- The 10-year Treasury yield is at its highest in nearly two decades. How we got here, CNBC
- Here's how much worse U.S. debt could get as Treasury yields surge to the highest levels in two decades, Fortune
- The 10-Year Treasury Pays 5.2%. The S&P 500 Only Needs 4% Earnings Growth to Keep Up., The Motley Fool
- The Fed's September 2026 rate hike: What Warsh's comments mean for investors, Facet
- Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for September 17, Bloomberg