If someone had told you in January that 2026 would bring a U.S.-Iran war, a closed Strait of Hormuz, $100 oil and 3.4% inflation, you would probably have bought gold. You would also be well underwater from the top.
What happened
According to Yahoo Finance on September 28, 2026, gold reached a record of almost $5,600 in January. On Monday, September 28, December gold futures opened at $4,275.20, down 1.1% from Friday. They then dropped to $4,188.90 by 6:57 a.m. ET, opening at their lowest level since August 5. Yahoo attributed the drop to a stronger dollar, rising bond yields and rising expectations for another Fed hike, after President Trump rejected Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Fortune's daily gold price tracker shows the trend through the month: about $4,418 per ounce on September 9 and about $4,278 on September 24.
Bitcoin did not act as a hedge either
- Sept. 1: CoinDesk noted bitcoin entering "Rektember" as rate-hike risk threatened its August rally.
- Sept. 4: Forbes reported bitcoin fell from about $81,400 to $78,600 as the strong jobs report hit.
- Sept. 16: The Motley Fool Australia reported a 5.7% plunge to US$74,910.
- Sept. 28: Yahoo Finance reported bitcoin opened at $84,457.30 and fell to $82,957.64 by 7:20 a.m. ET, citing the same forces as gold: a strong dollar, higher yields and rising oil.
Why the safe-haven playbook broke
Gold pays no interest. When real, risk-free yields are low, holding it costs little. In September the U.S. 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2007 and the Fed hiked to 3.75%-4%. The opportunity cost of holding gold rose sharply. In this cycle the war has acted mainly through oil to inflation to rate hikes, and that chain is negative for non-yielding assets, even though a war would normally help gold.
The dollar matters too. Gold is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. On September 28, Yahoo Finance listed the stronger dollar first among the pressures on gold. In our view, U.S. yields at multi-decade highs and a Fed that has just started hiking give the dollar support. That pushes against gold even on days when war headlines get worse. For a trader watching MGC and NQ on the same screen, the result is that gold's most common macro driver this year has been U.S. rates, not risk sentiment.
The controversy
The gold bull's reply: gold is still far above where it traded in 2025. A Yahoo Finance report on September 22 said Chinese gold imports set a record, which suggests physical demand is holding up. A pullback after a record run is normal.
The skeptic's reply: if gold cannot rally when the Strait of Hormuz is closed and inflation is at 3.4%, the "crisis hedge" label needs a footnote: unless the crisis raises real yields.
Our take: Gold is not broken. The problem is the popular idea that "war means gold goes up." In 2026, gold has traded as a rates asset first and a fear asset second. For futures traders, that means GC and MGC often move with NQ on yield-driven days, not against it. Traders who assume gold will offset losses in equity index futures during a hawkish shock may find both positions losing at once.
What traders can do (general, not advice)
- Check the 10-year yield and the dollar before trading GC/MGC on macro days. Those drove September's moves more than war headlines did.
- Don't treat gold or bitcoin as automatic hedges for NQ in a hiking cycle. Check the correlation you are actually getting.
- Expect gap risk on Monday opens while weekend diplomacy is moving oil.
Key takeaways
- Gold hit almost $5,600 in January 2026 (Yahoo Finance). December futures traded near $4,189 on Sept. 28, the lowest open since Aug. 5.
- Yahoo cited a stronger dollar, rising yields and higher odds of another Fed hike.
- Bitcoin also slid on key macro days: jobs (Sept. 4), the Fed (Sept. 16) and the Iran headlines (Sept. 28).
- The 10-year yield hit its highest since 2007 and the Fed hiked, raising the cost of holding non-yielding assets.
- Our opinion: in 2026, gold has traded as a rates asset first and a fear asset second.
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FAQ
Why is gold falling during the Iran war?
According to Yahoo Finance's Sept. 28, 2026 report, a stronger dollar, rising bond yields and expectations of another Fed hike pressured gold. The war's main market effect has been higher oil and inflation, which pushes rates up and raises the cost of holding non-yielding gold.
What was gold's 2026 record high?
Yahoo Finance reported that gold reached a record of almost $5,600 an ounce in January 2026.
Is bitcoin a hedge against geopolitical risk?
It did not act as one in September 2026. Bitcoin fell on the strong jobs report, around the Fed hike and after Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz plan, according to Forbes, The Motley Fool Australia and Yahoo Finance.
Loomi.Ai provides educational market research, not financial advice. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss, and backtested results are historical and do not guarantee future returns.
Sources
- Gold prices today, Monday, September 28, 2026: Gold prices slump as Iran tensions and oil prices rise, Yahoo Finance
- Current price of gold: September 9, 2026, Fortune
- Current price of gold: September 24, 2026, Fortune
- Gold price today, Tuesday, September 22, 2026: Gold prices holding as Chinese gold imports set record, Yahoo Finance
- Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Monday, September 28, 2026, Yahoo Finance
- Bitcoin enters 'Rektember' as rate hike risks threaten its August rally, CoinDesk
- Bitcoin Failed To Mount A Convincing Recovery After Quick Drop, Forbes
- Why did the Bitcoin price just plunge 6%?, The Motley Fool Australia
- The 10-year Treasury yield is at its highest in nearly two decades. How we got here, CNBC
- Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%, CNBC