For years, critics have said prop challenges look a lot like betting. In 2026, part of the industry started heading straight toward sports prediction markets. Two events in one summer show where some prop entrepreneurs think the next opportunity is.
What happened
July 15, 2026: a prop firm for sports. OddsON announced its US launch as "the first prop trading firm built entirely around sports prediction markets." The structure copies the forex/futures prop playbook:
- A two-stage evaluation (a "Qualifier" and a "Verification" round) on a simulated bankroll
- Published risk rules covering maximum stake size, daily loss limits and overall drawdown
- A free "Rookie" challenge on a $1,000 simulated bankroll, with paid tiers via a "one-time entry fee"
- Funded traders keep 75% of the profit they produce
The release is careful with its wording: "No trader wagers or risks real money at any stage of a challenge, and payouts to funded traders are performance-based rewards for skill, not winnings from a bet."
August 21, 2026: a well-known founder exits. Angelo Ciaramello, founder of The Funded Trader (TFT), said he had shut down his futures prop firm Rev One Trading and was leaving prop firms for prediction markets, Finance Magnates reported. He wrote: "We built an amazing product but did not have a top platform option, which hurt our ability to scale." Per Finance Magnates, he did not name the prediction-market products or give a timetable. His announcement also said nothing about active subscriptions or outstanding payouts at Rev One.
Finance Magnates also notes that FPFX Technologies sued TFT and its operator, Easton Consulting Technologies, in 2025, alleging more than $184,000 in unpaid fees and breach of an exclusivity clause. Those claims remain allegations.
Why this matters for prop traders
Rev One's own website, per Finance Magnates, says all activity was simulated, no futures trades were executed on an exchange, and the firm was not registered as a broker or futures commission merchant. That is the same simulated-account model now being applied to sports. The mechanics carry over easily: entry fee, rules, a simulated balance and a payout if you win. The only thing that changes is what's on screen, a football line instead of an NQ chart.
It also raises the central question. If the same structure works for sports outcomes, what makes the forex or futures version "trading" and the sports version something else?
Both sides
The industry's argument: The skill is real. Reading markets, sizing stakes and respecting drawdown limits are skills whether the underlying is EUR/USD or an NBA game. OddsON stresses that no customer wagers real money. Payouts are "performance-based rewards," and the free tier costs nothing.
The critics' argument: Regulators have already reached for gaming language. According to Finance Magnates, Italy's Consob called prop sites a "finance video game," and stakeholders in early ESMA talks argued gaming frameworks were the natural fit. A paid entry fee plus a cash prize if you hit a target is, structurally, very close to a contest or wager. Putting sports underneath makes it harder to argue otherwise.
Our take
Our take: This pivot is revealing. When a founder closes a futures prop firm because he couldn't get a top platform and moves to prediction markets, it suggests the core business was never really about markets. It was about running evaluations. That is not illegal, and some traders enjoy it. But traders should stop assuming "prop firm" means "trading career path." The uncomfortable question: if the product works the same way on sports odds, was it ever mainly about finding traders, or about selling challenges?
What traders can do
- Judge any prop program, whether futures, forex or sports, on fees, rules, who is paying you and payout track record. Ignore the asset class branding.
- Look up the founder's history before buying. Past payout suspensions are relevant.
- Keep in mind that prediction-market products face their own legal fights in the US. Check local law before participating.
Key takeaways
- OddsON launched July 15, 2026 as a sports prediction-market prop firm with a two-stage evaluation and a 75% profit split.
- TFT founder Angelo Ciaramello closed futures prop firm Rev One and said on August 21, 2026 that he is moving to prediction markets.
- Per Finance Magnates, TFT still had 1,000+ clients awaiting payouts from March 2024 as of April 2026.
- The move to sports makes the "trading vs gambling" question harder to avoid.
- Evaluate programs on fees, rules and payout history, not branding.
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FAQ
What is OddsON?
A US prop firm launched July 15, 2026 for sports prediction markets. Traders pass a two-stage evaluation on a simulated bankroll and, if funded, keep 75% of profits, according to its press release.
Why did Rev One Trading close?
Founder Angelo Ciaramello said it lacked a top platform option, which hurt its ability to scale. He said he is leaving prop firms to focus on prediction markets.
Is a sports prop challenge gambling?
OddsON says no, because customers don't wager real money and payouts are skill-based rewards. Critics and some regulators have compared prop challenges to games. Legal treatment depends on jurisdiction.
Loomi.Ai provides educational market research, not financial advice. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss, and backtested results are historical and do not guarantee future returns.
Sources
- OddsON Launches as the First Prop Trading Firm Built Entirely Around Sports Prediction Markets, GlobeNewswire
- TFT Founder Closes Futures Prop Firm, Turns to Prediction Markets, Finance Magnates
- Funded Trader Founder Shuts Prop Firm for Prediction Markets, FinanceFeeds
- Hola Prime Brings In Deloitte to Audit Payouts as Trust Gap Widens Across Prop Firms (TFT pending payouts), Finance Magnates