Wednesday, October 21, 2026, opened with the AI trade back in charge, at least before the bell. A much bigger-than-expected quarter from SpaceX and a raised outlook from Super Micro Computer gave chip and data-center stocks a lift, while Netflix dropped after a soft forecast and oil pushed back above $110 a barrel. The day's real test comes after the close, when Tesla, Meta and IBM report.
At around 6 a.m. Eastern, S&P 500 futures were up 0.3%, Nasdaq-100 futures had climbed 0.9% and Dow futures were little changed, according to Yahoo Finance. The gains narrowed a bit afterward: by 6:07 a.m. ET Investing.com had Nasdaq-100 futures up 87 points, or 0.3%, S&P futures up 0.1% and the Dow down 66 points. The Associated Press, via BNN Bloomberg, put S&P futures up 0.2% and Nasdaq futures up 0.4% a little later.
Tuesday's close: the Dow did the work
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 529.85 points, or 1.02%, to 52,495.88 on Tuesday, the S&P 500 added 21.84 points, or 0.28%, to 7,712.57, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 6.07 points, or 0.02%, to 26,424.82, Reuters reported. 3M jumped 5.8% after expanding its data-center partnership with Amazon and raising its full-year profit forecast.
Rates and oil both gave some room. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.5 basis points to 5.121% after touching 5.073% during the day, and Brent settled down 0.69% at $108.79 after reaching a five-month high of $111.99 intraday, according to Reuters. CME FedWatch showed the odds of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points at next week's Federal Reserve meeting at 17.2%, down from 57.6% a month earlier.
The day still carried a warning. Reuters noted the 32% debut-day drop in South Korean AI infrastructure company Elice Group, which we covered in Tuesday's market wrap, as a sign of how nervous investors are about paying up for AI capacity.
SpaceX gives AI bulls a fresh argument
After the bell, SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% from a year earlier, and net income of $4.4 billion, compared with a net loss of $1.1 billion a year ago, according to its earnings release. Analysts had expected revenue of $12.72 billion and a profit of $1.57 billion, per LSEG data cited by Reuters.
The driver was AI. Revenue from SpaceX's Super Intelligence segment jumped to $7.56 billion from $813 million a year earlier, mostly from renting computing capacity to developers such as Anthropic, Google and Reflection AI, Reuters reported. Nameplate compute reached 1.7 gigawatts at the end of September. The cost is steep: AI absorbed $16.4 billion of the company's $19.6 billion in quarterly capital spending.
Shares were up more than 8% premarket, according to Investing.com. Musk also said SpaceX and Tesla have formed independent special committees to evaluate a possible merger, while playing down the chance of an imminent deal, per the AP. Tesla was up more than 2% before the open.
According to Yahoo Finance's Stocktwits report, CoreWeave, Nebius, Nvidia and Intel rose between 2% and 4% in early premarket trading as Musk pushed back on fears of an AI compute glut, and power names such as Bloom Energy and Oklo gained after he said power and cooling, not chips, were becoming the main constraint on AI computing.
Super Micro's number was even bigger
Super Micro Computer raised its preliminary fiscal first-quarter revenue estimate to $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion, up from earlier guidance of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, and lifted its expected gross margin to 12.0% to 12.5% from 10.4% to 10.8%, the company said in a business update. The stock jumped 12.7% premarket to $36.69, according to Investing.com. Final results are due November 3.
Netflix is the exception
Not every report helped. Netflix fell about 6% premarket after guiding fourth-quarter EPS to 67 cents, below the 73-cent average estimate, and cutting its 2026 advertising forecast to roughly $2.7 billion from about $3 billion, Reuters reported. Third-quarter revenue grew 11.8% to $12.87 billion, its slowest growth in nearly three years. We break down the quarter in today's earnings recap.
Oil is the pressure that won't go away
Brent rose 1.3% to $110.21 a barrel early Wednesday and U.S. crude gained 1.6% to $99.40, the AP reported, noting that Brent has swung between $97 and $112 this month. Yahoo Finance's premarket report tied the move to reports that Iran's Revolutionary Guards blocked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and to U.S. officials calling a peace deal "difficult." PreMarketDaily had the 10-year yield up 1.6 basis points to 5.135% and the VIX down about 6% to 17.31.
That combination is the market's balancing act right now: earnings that keep beating, against energy prices and long-term yields that keep inflation worries alive.
Where Loomi fits
Days like this split the tape. Nasdaq futures can rally on AI news while oil and yields lean the other way, and a single report after the bell can reverse the whole move. Loomi's VIX Gate helps decide when conditions favor taking new risk, and the GEX regime view shows whether dealer positioning is likely to dampen or amplify moves around big events like tonight's Tesla and Meta reports. For traders who prefer rules over reactions, Loomi's automated strategies define entries, exits and sizing in advance, with track records on results and verification.
What's next
Tesla, Meta and IBM report after Wednesday's close, which kicks off Big Tech earnings season, according to Yahoo Finance. Texas Instruments, Lam Research and Kinder Morgan are also on the after-hours calendar. With the Fed meeting next week, the question is whether AI earnings can keep outrunning $110 oil and a 10-year yield above 5%.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
— Rowan Ellery, Markets Editor, Loomi.Ai. Questions or corrections? See our research methodology.
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FAQ
Why are Nasdaq futures up on October 21, 2026?
SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161%, and net income of $4.4 billion, well above estimates, and Super Micro raised its quarterly revenue estimate to $18.5–$19.5 billion. Both reports lifted AI and chip stocks before the open.
Why is Netflix stock down today?
Netflix guided fourth-quarter EPS to 67 cents versus a 73-cent consensus and cut its 2026 ad revenue forecast to about $2.7 billion from about $3 billion. Shares fell about 6% premarket.
When do Tesla and Meta report earnings?
Tesla, Meta and IBM report after the market close on Wednesday, October 21, 2026.
Loomi.Ai provides educational market research, not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading stocks, futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. Estimates and schedules cited were current at publication and can change.
Sources
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as earnings roll in, SpaceX stock surges, Yahoo Finance
- Premarket movers: Super Micro, SCHMID Group and SpaceX surge, Investing.com
- U.S. futures mostly higher as Wall Street digests earnings from SpaceX, Netflix, The Associated Press via BNN Bloomberg
- Nasdaq futures rise premarket as SpaceX AI boom lifts chip stocks, Yahoo Finance / Stocktwits
- Stocks mostly rise as oil, US yields ease, Reuters via StreetInsider
- SpaceX Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, SpaceX (SEC filing)
- SpaceX quarterly revenue jumps, mostly from renting out data center capacity, Reuters via NBC News
- Elon Musk's SpaceX reports a profit and he hints at a possible merger with Tesla, AP News
- Supermicro Provides First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2027 Preliminary Business Update, Supermicro
- Netflix co-CEO Sarandos says 'we could do better' after weak forecast, Reuters via StreetInsider
- Can AI Earnings Offset a $110 Oil Threat?, PreMarketDaily