Thursday, October 22, 2026, flipped the script on Wednesday's rally. The same AI enthusiasm that SpaceX and Super Micro rekindled a day earlier ran into a harder question overnight: how much more money the biggest tech companies will need to spend, and when it pays off. Tesla and Meta both reported after Wednesday's close, and neither answered that question in a way the market liked. Add a jump in oil after fresh attacks in Saudi Arabia, and futures pointed to a sharply lower open.
At 7:10 a.m. Eastern, Dow E-minis were down 365 points, or 0.69%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 81.25 points, or 1.04%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 515 points, or 1.72%, Reuters reported. Stocktwits, via Yahoo Finance, had Nasdaq-100 futures down as much as 1.9%, enough to threaten most of the index's 2.2% gain so far this week. The CBOE Volatility Index rose 1.57 points to 18.25 after three straight days of declines.
Wednesday's close: AI back in charge, briefly
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 360.21 points, or 0.69%, to 52,856.09 on Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained 44.60 points, or 0.58%, to 7,757.17, and the Nasdaq Composite added 278.04 points, or 1.05%, to 26,702.86, according to Reuters. It was the S&P 500's third straight gain, CNBC noted. Super Micro jumped 9.5% on an upbeat forecast, and SpaceX rose 7.8% after Elon Musk said a merger with Tesla would be "a good idea." We covered that session in Wednesday's market wrap.
That optimism didn't survive the night. Reuters reported SpaceX down 1.9% and Super Micro down 3.1% before the bell on Thursday, as investors looked past strong numbers to the cost of the AI buildout.
Tesla and Meta: spending is the story
Tesla fell 3.6% in premarket trading, per Reuters, after cutting its 2026 capital spending forecast to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion. On paper, spending less sounds like good news for cash flow. But the market read it as a question mark over the pace of Tesla's AI and robotics plans, and Yahoo Finance noted investors were weighing that lower 2026 figure against higher spending planned for 2027 and 2028 on Optimus, Cybercab and Terafab. Reuters also reported that some Tesla insiders worry Musk's public comments about a SpaceX merger could invite shareholder scrutiny. Musk declined to discuss the merger on the analyst call, according to the Dow Jones morning briefing.
Meta slipped about 2% after reporting record revenue and announcing a new class of non-voting Class C stock, which Reuters said reflects the heavy capital needed to stay competitive in AI. Meta also raised the low end of its 2026 capital spending range to $135 billion, keeping the top at $145 billion. The details of both reports are in our earnings recap.
Chips take the hit
The selling spread quickly across semiconductors. Lam Research sank more than 7% premarket after its December-quarter outlook only roughly matched expectations, despite record revenue of $8.22 billion. Intel fell 4.4%, and AMD, Qualcomm, Marvell, Broadcom and Micron were down between 3% and 4.7%, according to Reuters. Nvidia fell 1.9% and Amazon 1.8%. IBM dropped 4.7% even after beating estimates and raising its software outlook.
"The market is still willing to reward heavy AI investment, but is becoming much more demanding about returns," Santiago Mateo, head of equity at CaixaBank Asset Management, told Bloomberg, as quoted by Stocktwits. That sums up this earnings season so far: a beat isn't enough unless the spending story holds up too.
Oil jumps, yields fall
Brent crude climbed more than 2.8% to $111.92 a barrel, near a five-month high, after more Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked fears of supply disruptions and a wider conflict, Reuters reported. December Brent briefly topped $112.20 and WTI approached $100, according to Stocktwits, after President Trump said Washington was not negotiating with Tehran. The Dow Jones briefing said Wednesday's attack hit the international airport in Dammam, an oil-producing area near Bahrain.
Bonds caught a safety bid. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.065%, Reuters said, and the dollar slid to a three-week low against a basket of currencies, per Dow Jones. Gold fell more than 1% and Bitcoin dropped 3.2%.
Other movers
- American Airlines fell 3.2% after forecasting an annual loss, as high jet fuel prices outpace fare increases (Reuters).
- Blackstone slipped 1.4% after a drop in quarterly earnings (Reuters).
- Procter & Gamble rose more than 2% premarket after beating estimates on earnings and revenue (CNBC).
Yahoo Finance also reported, citing people familiar with the plans, that Anthropic could file for its IPO as soon as Friday, in what could be the largest stock offering ever.
Where Loomi fits
Thursday is a textbook example of a regime shift inside a single week: a three-day rally, then a gap lower driven by oil, yields and guidance all at once. Loomi's VIX Gate is built for exactly this moment, helping decide whether conditions still support taking new risk when volatility starts to climb off its lows. The GEX regime view shows whether dealer positioning is likely to cushion a gap like this one or speed it up. And for traders who would rather have the plan written before the open, Loomi's automated strategies set entries, exits and sizing in advance, with track records you can check on results and verification.
What's next
Weekly jobless claims were due before the open, and Comcast, Lockheed Martin, Procter & Gamble, Blackstone and American Airlines reported this morning. The bigger date is next week's Federal Reserve meeting, which investors are watching for clues on rates with oil back near $112. For the chip side of the AI debate, see our look at TSMC's record quarter.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
— Rowan Ellery, Markets Editor, Loomi.Ai. Questions or corrections? See our research methodology.
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FAQ
Why are Nasdaq futures down on October 22, 2026?
Nasdaq-100 futures fell about 1.7% to 1.9% as Tesla and Meta results revived doubts about the returns on AI spending, chip stocks such as Lam Research, Intel and AMD fell, and Brent crude rose near $112 after more attacks in Saudi Arabia.
Why did Tesla stock fall after earnings?
Tesla cut its 2026 capital spending forecast to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion, which investors read as a question about the pace of its AI and robotics plans. Shares were down about 3.6% premarket, per Reuters.
How high is oil on October 22, 2026?
Brent crude rose more than 2.8% to about $111.92 a barrel, near a five-month high, and briefly topped $112.20, while WTI approached $100.
Loomi.Ai provides educational market research, not financial advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading stocks, futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. Estimates and schedules cited were current at publication and can change.
Sources
- Nasdaq futures sink as AI doubts resurface, oil jumps, Reuters via Investing.com
- Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall as oil climbs, investors weigh Tesla, Meta earnings, Yahoo Finance
- Nasdaq futures slide premarket as AI spending worries resurface; oil tops $112, Stocktwits via Yahoo Finance
- North American Morning Briefing: Stock futures tumble, Mideast tensions push oil higher, Dow Jones via Morningstar
- Stocks rise on AI-led earnings, France's 10-year bond yield hits 5%, Reuters via Euronext
- S&P 500 notches 3-day win streak, Nasdaq jumps 1%, CNBC
- Procter & Gamble earnings beat as sales rise 4%, CNBC